May 23, 2018

Tracking the tropical system in the Gulf

20 June 2017, 12:43 | Guillermo Sutton

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two forecast track.

An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean continues to organize this evening. A hurricane hunter plane is also investigating that system to determine whether winds have reached tropical storm force.

The National Hurricane Center is giving it an 80 percent chance of developing into at least a tropical depression within five days. While the center could remain well offshore, the circulation around that could bring a prolonged time frame of easterly and southeasterly onshore flow to the area.

Let's start with the system that may impact parts of the Gulf Coast next week.

As of Monday morning the potential Gulf system, Invest 93L, was still a bit of a mess.

Thursday into Friday we may see some influence from a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. "That's something that we are fairly certain is going to happen, regardless of how strong the system gets and which track it ultimately takes". It is still too early to say with any certainty, whether there would be any impacts on land. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 millimetres) are possible.

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Deteriorating conditions with pockets of moderate to heavy showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds are expected spread across Barbados late tomorrow into Tuesday.

Bottom line with 93-L, South Mississippi should prepare now for the potential for flooding from heavy tropical rains this week.

The tropical system is forecast to move through the Windward Islands and near the eastern coast of Venezuela Monday night and early Tuesday.

But will the storm pick up enough wind speed to turn into a hurricane?

This could mean tide levels above normal that would create a flood threat for areas outside the levee system. Chris said the system will remain rather weak with winds around 40-45 miles per hour at landfall, but that the storm will contain a lot of moisture.

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