etvfutures.com
etvfutures.com November 21, 2017


Global crude oil demand to ease on warm climate

14 November 2017, 08:41 | Cesar Cruz

Crude Oil Inventories Decline, but Imbalance to Continue: IEA

Oil market could tip out of balance on rising non-Opec production

Amid these upheavals, Canada will likely remain a minor actor, its global plans dashed partially through self-restraint and rules, and also by its next-door neighbour who is upending global markets and disrupting Canada's plans to export oil and gas in the process.

But that's where the good news ends for the Canadian oilpatch.

"I think this group of committed and responsible producers came together. and I think they will continue to do what it takes to take us to the next level", he said at an global oil conference.

Crude oil markets are expected to be oversupplied in the current quarter and going into 2018, the IEA said.

That will keep prices down and help make the United States a net exporter of oil - in addition to gas - by the late 2020s.

The IEA said planned and unplanned disruptions from OPEC may be offset elsewhere, however.

With the US eating into Canada's prospective market share, the IEA believes Canada's liquefied natural gas export will likely not come to fruition until the 2030s - a decade longer than expected - even as LNG will usher in a "new global gas order".

"Next year's demand growth will struggle to match this", the IEA said.

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The emergence of the United States "represents a major upheaval for worldwide market dynamics", said Dr Fatih Birol, IEA executive director.

Global oil supply rose by 100,000 bpd in October to 97.5m bpd on higher production from non-Opec countries, and non-Opec oil supply is expected to rise by 700,000 bpd this year and 1.4m bpd next year, led by stronger output in the US.

Overall global energy needs are seen rising more slowly than in the past, but are still projected to expand by 30 per cent between today and 2040.

Canada could still play a role as China's long-held fears for its energy security means it would seek to diversify its sources of supply.

Once U.S. production from shale and tight oil plays plateaus and non-OPEC production as a whole declines in the late 2020s, the Middle East once again becomes the primary supplier.

After an upbeat performance last week, oil prices edged lower for a second day Tuesday.

A more widespread use of electric cars will not be enough to consign oil to the past, said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

Production fell by 470,000 barrels a day compared with October 2016 as OPEC supply fell sharply - 80,000 barrels per day - and total cartel output of 32.53 million barrels a day was 830,000 barrels a day less than a year ago.



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