March 21, 2018

OECD Boosts US, Eurozone and Global Growth Expectations for 2018 and 2019

13 March 2018, 06:48 | Opal Carroll

OECD forecasts better growth ahead

OECD upgrades global and Japan growth outlooks for 2018 and 2019

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development raised its global growth forecast for both 2018 and 2019 to 3.9 per cent. - Reuters picPARIS, March 13 - The global economy will see its strongest growth in seven years in 2018 thanks to a rebound in trade and investment, the OECD said today, while also warning a trade war could threaten the improved outlook.

An improved outlook for world economic growth will be placed at severe risk if a trade war results from U.S. metal tariffs, a respected global forum has warned.

The OECD predicts the fastest world growth since 2011 this year, helped by United States tax cuts and spending in Germany.

City and academic economists expect the United Kingdom economy to expand at an annual pace of 1.5% over the next two years, and Chancellor Philip Hammond is expected to reveal a more optimistic outlook in updated official forecasts on Tuesday.

Canada's growth is expected to slow to two per cent next year, but that's also better than previous expectations, which were for 1.9 per cent as of three months ago.

In its interim economic outlook report, the OECD projects 3.9 percent global growth for 2018 and 2019, up from the November forecasts of 3.7 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively.

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However, it warned that the recovery risked being undermined by an escalation in trade barriers that would hurt growth and jobs.

The warning comes as many countries including the European Union and Japan try to get exemptions from the US on the metals tariffs amid threats of retaliatory measures against the world's largest economy.

The OECD appeared to take another jab at Trump - again, without naming him - saying that governments should avoid fiscal policy choices that are "excessively pro-cyclical", meaning further heating up an economy already firing on all cylinders.

The eurozone economy will likely see a robust and broad-based expansion, with growth in gross domestic product estimated at 2.3 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year. Countries should rely on collective solutions like the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity to address specific issues. "Safeguarding the rules-based global trading system is key".

Economists put Britain's growth at an annual pace of 1.5% over the next two years.

The OECD stressed that the world economy would continue to strengthen in 2018 and 2019.

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