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etvfutures.com May 22, 2018


OPEC Still Cuts More Than Oil Pact Demands

16 May 2018, 03:59 | Israel Caldwell

OPEC Still Cuts More Than Oil Pact Demands

OPEC Still Cuts More Than Oil Pact Demands

West Texas Intermediate, the USA marker, is $3.21 a barrel below Middle East benchmark Dubai.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $71.09 a barrel, up 13 cents and also not far off their November 2014 high of $71.89 a barrel reached last week.

In a monthly report issued Monday (https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/#tabs-summary-2), the Energy Information Administration said crude-oil production from seven major US shale plays is expected to see a climb of 144,000 barrels a day in June to 7.178 million barrels a day.

Crude oil continues to remain glued to three-year highs and WTI crude prices testing the 72.00/barrel price level as Middle East tensions continue to bolster oil prices.

The Paris-based IEA cut its forecast for global demand growth to 1.4 million barrels per day for 2018, from a previous estimate of 1.5 million bpd.

Now the United States has announced it will impose sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, raising fears that markets will face shortages later this year when trade restrictions come into effect. "The loss of Iranian barrels could tighten supplies of Middle Eastern medium-sour crudes and be supportive of Dubai oil, as traders watch for any response from other Gulf producers".

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Refinery runs in March also jumped to a record as import quotas for the small independent refiners-the so-called "teapots"-were increased and refinery margins stayed healthy".

"The commitment of Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC to the production cuts is a major factor in supporting the price at the moment as well as the possibility of reduced exports from Iran due to sanctions", said William O'Loughlin, investment analyst at Rivkin Securities.

"A rising oil price brings upside price risk to all commodities", Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients this week. China's crude oil imports in the first quarter increased by 7 percent on the year to around 9.09 million bpd-a rise of nearly 595,000 bpd on average compared to Q1 2017, according to Reuters calculations.

The decision by US President Donald Trump to withdraw from the Iran deal "has switched the focus of oil market analysis from the fundamentals to geopolitics", the International Energy Agency wrote in its regular monthly report.

Torm operates 79 oil product tankers worldwide.



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